TIME LEFT TO ASI THRESHOLD
Target date: 17 November 2029 | Baseline: 3 June 2026
AI progress model: 57.0% toward ASI threshold
Model
P(t) = 100 / (1 + e-k(t-t₀))
Calibrated at 57% on 3 June 2026 with k≈2.0/year. Practical ASI crossing modeled at 99.9%+. This model is stylized and illustrative.
The Leadership 30 | Leadership Beyond Self
CIVILIZATION COUNTDOWN CLOCKS
Three Clocks. One Civilization.
CLIMATE DEADLINE
Carbon budget exhausted at current emission rates
climateclock.world →ASI THRESHOLD
Logistic S-curve model, k≈2.0/year
WWIII INSTABILITY THRESHOLD
Strategic instability red-zone ignition threshold
THE MATHEMATICS BEHIND THE CLOCK
Logistic S-Curve Model for AI Progress
The logistic growth model predicts processes that start slowly, accelerate rapidly, then approach a natural limit. We apply it to AI progress toward Artificial Superintelligence.
Core Equation
S-Curve Phases
Early Phase
Slow, almost linear progress. AI is strong on narrow benchmarks but gaps remain in generality, agency, and autonomy.
Inflection Point
Explosive exponential-like growth. Scaling laws, algorithmic improvements, and AI R&D automation create self-improvement feedback loops.
Saturation
Rapid approach to the ASI threshold. Physical and computational limits, or the intelligence explosion, as the model crosses 99.9%.
Job Displacement Model
J(t) = Jmax × (1 − e‑λ·P(t))
Displacement accelerates sharply once P(t) > 70–80%, expected around 2028 in this model.
Sensitivity to Growth Rate k
k = 1.5 → Slower growth → Date shifts to ~mid-2031
k = 2.0 → Base case → 17 November 2029
k = 2.5 → Faster takeoff → Date moves to ~early 2029
This model is stylized and illustrative for the ANK VEDA AI Clock™ concept.
ANK VEDA AI CLOCK™
THE CLOCK IS TICKING. ARE YOU PREPARING?
The Leadership 30 exists precisely for this moment in civilization.